I'm a Francophile but a little confused. I think it really does matter and this is Round one. There is an article on it in the latest New Yorker. In the article, it says the French are trapped in Cartesian logic. So the left cannot creep toward the center, let alone the right. In France, apparently, "the center" represents a free-market, social-democratic consensus, but The State has been reified and deified by the left and right. No one wants to lose protections. Would you?!
This first round is the "protest round." There are 12 candidates from alot of little parties. They are against globalization, or McDonalds, or for nature or Trotsky. I guess it's kind of like our primaries, only then Round 2, the real deal, is right after! That is terrifying!
In Round 2, the 2 candidates with the most votes face off. The Socialist candidate is said to be "scattered," the conservative is "tightly wired" and now they are chased by a Centrist. None of them come from Establishment families. Now they have to consider high immigration, high employment and competition with the global economy. Something's got to give and it's painful.
"Reform" is associated with people like Margaret Thatcher. May 6 is Round 2, only a week away. Sarkozy has been leading by only 7 points, on average, with Royal and Bayrou close at hand. Then there is Le Pen, the who defines Frenchness by "blood."
In the article, Sarko (nickname for Sarkozy) is small, abrasive, impatient and foot-tapping. He is the one who threatened to blast the suburbs with a graffiti cleaner hose. His wife had an affair but people don't care like that like they would here. Maybe it is even a plus.
Royal sounds like a real Socialist but yes, unfocussed. She doesn't like to delegate. She's supposed to be a good listener, she's a feminist. Her "manifesto" has been compared with Hillary Cinton's "conversation with the American people." "Sometimes she loves immigrants; sometimes she loves the police more."
Bayrou sounds like the dark horse. He doesn't want to admit Turkey to the EU. Europe is big enough. His plan sounds like it will cost less money and do more, and he is smart. He has a toy tractor on his desk. He was Minister of Education at one time. His volunteers adore him. He would share power with a Socialist. I can't find anything really horrible about him.
The article didn't say much about Le Pen. Let's hope he's out.
Oh no - polls look good for Sarko.
Royal is not popular either but looks like no choice for the French.
The whole world is going to the right.
Posted by: not my president | April 23, 2007 at 03:48 PM
Americans and others aren't commenting on my story about the French election so here are a bunch of comments I borrowed from the Telegraph on a story there about how Bayrou is the "Third Man" and now Royal (left) and Sarkozy (right) have to court him and his voters.
France has turned to be more monarchical than ever before, at least since Louis Philippe I d'Orleans, King of the French was deposed in 1848. They have as candidates a Madame Royal (like the daughter of King Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette of Austria the Duchesse d’Angoulème), but in this case is just Ségolène Royal. Nicolas Sarkozy, the champion of the French nationalism and the man who promised to stop new immigrants coming into France, is the son of a Hungarian noble Paul Sárközy von Nagy Bocsa, coming not for the high aristocracy but from a family of landowners and officers of the Habsburg Monarchy, like his grandfather who fought against the Romanians and the Brits in WW1 as a captain of the Royal Regiment of Hungarian Hussars. They left Hungary, when Admiral Horthy Regent of Hungary, decided to break his relations with Nazi German and Hitler invaded the country. His grandson, champion of the French nationalists might be soon the next French President, if Madame Royal doesn’t stop him. But I must be thankful to our Lord that I am not a French citizen I would not vote for any of the two candidates. Ségolène, she had lots of experience as minister in the past, she has class, allure, a nice and charming woman, but she isn’t a political animal, so she is not prepare to be the next President of France, a country with so many contradictions and the cradle of our culture for at least the last four centuries, but now is immerse in chaos. Sárközy is indeed a political animal, a person with the utmost ambition for power, but finally a demagogue, who is extremely dangerous, he had taken too much from Jean Marie Le Pen and the French Fascists, he is too far right now, a French George W. Bush. He doesn’t represent the historic French right, which was Monarchical, Catholic and profoundly involved in the History of France and her Grandeur , like Charles de Gaulle was during the XX Century (Le Général a dit “Toute ma vie, je me suis fait une certaine idée de la France. ... La France ne peut être la France sans la grandeur”). Quite a pity that Dominique de Villepin isn’t in the ballots, he is a true representative of the old style conservative for France, not this dangerous French-Hungarian gentleman.
Posted by M. Louis A. F. v. Wetzler on April 24, 2007 5:01 AM
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Sarkozy, the alternative is more of the same as far as I can see. Old France is positioned to dissapear under the burden of cripeling socialism where less and less of the population contribute to wealth generation and more and more take from it. It does not take a political genious to work out the inevitable consequence of such a progression. There, but for the grace of Margertet Thatcher goeth the United Kingdom. Anyone listening?
Posted by Keith Manton on April 23, 2007 11:00 PM
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The French politicians will never reach the good quality level of English politicians. Why?
This is (probably) due to the excellent press in UK, which is very impartial, and do not cover up the problems. Congratulation to the Telegraph !
Posted by LOUIS JM on April 23, 2007 8:27 PM
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I would hate to try and predict what will happen in these elections, as every voter who chose Mr. Bayrou will have to decide whom they dislike less to vote for the second round. Everything being relative, this can shift at any second according to what is said by whom during the campaign. It does seem to be true that France needs an important change in order to survive with dignity in the coming years. And I am absolutely Disgusted at the hypocrisyand utopia behind Mme. Royal's plan.
Every (French) person with an IQ ranging in the positive numbers should be able to understand that. And that it is perfectly utopian to even think of promising to improve the welfare system. It is one of the very bests, there is no improvement needed here ; apart from improving its Users and making them understand that it should only be used as necessary.
the various abuses of the social welfare funds in France may also be largely attributed , in my opinion, to the recruitment processes in use in this country, which would discourage the most motivated jobseeker in just days. And throw them in the comforting arms of social welfare after a few months, and I don't blame them. My experience leads me to consider an additional factor in the unemployment problem in France: the attitude of the employers towards recruitment (extremely selective, slow, look at diplomas rather than skills, work in perfect accordance to Parkinson's law). And I can't see mme. Royal would do anything about that, whereas I think Mr. Sarkozy might try to implement an attitude closer to the UK, Ireland and the US , which countries seem to pay a greater deal of attention to candidates' skills and experience in the recruitment process. That should already de-clog a good part of the arteries of the social system. the only little drawback is : Does Mr. Sarkozy have enough charm to motivate people who've been years on welfare and could get a decent job but have been put-off many times by overly selective employers?
Anyway, who am I to say that: a 7-years-pentalingual French expatriate. Who's never been on welfare ever because I'd rather go busking if push comes to shove. What do I know about life in my country at the moment?Good luck, France!
Posted by Elise Darchis on April 23, 2007 3:54 PM
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Last chance for France to save herself and her children. Segolene Royal cannot be trusted. She's all style but no substance. (perfectly coiffed hair & colour-coordinated suits, choreographed media appearances but cancels previously-agreed TV and radio engagements at whim). She has no real leadership qualites (panders to the masses and is opinion-led rather than leading the people of France who's in dire need of a strong leader who knows what needs to be done, not someone who's main campagne stategy is to ask the people what needs to be done) She makes stupid gaffes that betray her real hard-left ideologies- from her comments about China to Quebec. Her fiscal policies do not add up. She will tax the rich & businesses further to fund her fantastical social policies and drive investment away, leading France to economic ruin, social collapse and widespread anarchy
Posted by MIngYe on April 23, 2007 2:00 PM
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Sarkosy, a tough nut,he could bring France away from its Socialist path. England is badly in need of someone with his qualifcations. We are suffering from the same ailments as France to many asylum seeker's, to much welfare. Who will arrest are nose dive into oblivion.??????
Posted by Edward McBride on April 23, 2007 11:09 AM
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I'm a 26 yrs old French woman.
And to be honest, it took 2 months to decide who I'd vote for. I eventually made my choice on Saturday, the day before the actual vote. I voted for Royal. I'm not at all convinced by her personality (does she have one??) , her speech is hollow. She's done without those who have experience. She's clumsy. On an international level, she'll make blunders and mistakes.
But still, I voted for socialism's sake, and because I didn't think Bayrou could gather a governement that would work.
All of my friends voted for Bayrou and are now unable to choose between "pest and cholera".
I'm not convinced at all by Royal. But Sarlozy is a real danger to this country. Remember the riots in 2005? I work in those suburbs. And i can predict other riots if Sarkozy comes to power. His thirst for power is unhealthy. He reminds me of a dictateur.
I do sincerely hope Sarkozy will not take over. And I'm hoping to trust in Royal's team -hopefully they will prevent some damage to be done.
I really don't know where this country's going.
Posted by emmanuelle on April 23, 2007 10:39 AM
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I have noted that even the Telegraph's journalists cannot stop themselves from always addressing M. Sarkozy as the "right-wing" candidate, as if being on the right is somehow unclean. Mdm. Royal is seldom, if ever, addressed as the "left-wing" candidate; instead she is described as Socialist, as if that word could actually be considered clean and respectable. What is wrong with you people, are you scared of something? She is actually of the Far-Left!
The photogenic Mdm. Royal is also a complete fabrication, a chimera, and utterly inadequate Presidential material, although Time Magazine and Newsweek are going to love her. Basically her political platform is predicated on one message: Look at me and see my beauty and sexuality; now vote for me because I am a woman! Policy? Ah, no problem; let's all stand in the town square and have a "debate;" you listen, I talk.
If this is western democracy, then to hell with it. It's high time we had a major rethink. Every Briton with any common sense would vote for Nicolas Sarkozy as he played a leading role in clearing up the Sangatte saga.
Posted by Errol Flynn on April 23, 2007 9:49 AM
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Hopefully Sarkozy will be France's Thatcher. Ask any individual French person, who doesn't want to put at risk a lunch-break of less than 2 hours, but who will stand patiently awaiting service at s'market checkouts because half the Staff are restricted by the 35hr week, and who expect to spend the whole month of August at the beach, and they will say 'No changes, I pefer things as they are'. But in their hearts they know things have to change in a global economy. They know that no industrialized country can afford to sustain the present levels of unemployment. This is the dilemma the French people have to deal with, hence the 80% turnout at the polls. A true democracy at work. Meanwhile, 35 hr week or not, somehow France works. It has arguably the best road and rail system in Europe, the best system of local government where Le Maire is king. France plans, consructs and maintains roads, bridges, aqueducts, on budget and on time, and run the best health care system on this planet. Perhaps it's because they let professionals get on with the job, unlike the UK where Ministers spend billions on 'consultants' to tell them what to do. It's going to be a fascinating couple of weeks in both of these great Western countries to see which way 'the cat jumps'.
Posted by Mike Smith on April 23, 2007 9:48 AM
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Hmm...
I never thought I would say this but these two almost make me proud of our British politicians! (what a terrible admission...)
They both seem very dull and lacking in that little bit extra. No so much a French Thatcher or Blair more of a Gordon Brown or John Major. What a choice!
Posted by Jenny Day on April 23, 2007 9:46 AM
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I presume you mean "marxist thinking", the right never had much education "necessory" sic.How impudent to wish a socially destructive Thatcher figure on another country.Do you not learn from history? The french enjoy a higher standard of living,a more socially cohesive life style for less hours of work. Something to do with not having a bunch of freeloaders called the aristocracy and the inheritors of daddies power and wealth?
Posted by Jon Barton on April 23, 2007 9:23 AM
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Sarkozy is by far the best candidate - as long as he does what he says he will. Royal would be terrible and has already created problems amongst France's allies, such as when she attempted a de Gaul in Canada by calling for Quebec's independence.
Posted by JD Knight on April 23, 2007 9:18 AM
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The left in Europe and the World still has many things to say, but it must be a real left, not the wishy washy centre left we've seen lately!
It must be the effect of the upcoming British general election, but the Telegraph's neutrality seems to be fading, Sarkozy, Sarkozy, Sarkozy....Sarkozy!
Posted by Patrizio Castelli on April 23, 2007 8:51 AM
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Sarkozy is what France needs today. The economy is static and it has been managed far too long by socialist ideals which have proved not to work. The porr suffer considerably and the unemployment is high. New radical thinking and reforms are badly needed. That's what the French people need for their country. I think Sarkozy is the man who will be brave enough to carry out reform.
Posted by Ian L. Jameson on April 23, 2007 8:44 AM
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Le Pen at 11% does not tell the whole story.
What was the percentage vote in the previous elections and what then does his 11% represent in terms of the number of voters who voted for him?
It is to be hoped that Sarkozy wins and restore a little order over there.
Posted by GrahamB on April 23, 2007 8:44 AM
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As an English citizen, who has been living in France since 1987, and therefore unable to vote in either England or France, I would like to say that had I been able to vote, I would have voted for François Bayrou, as I think that France needs a real change in its political system. I hope he gets through in the next elections in 2012.
Posted by Henrietta Rothman on April 23, 2007 8:44 AM
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Sarkosky
Because Royale has threatened to pull out of the joint Aircraft Carrier project, which may imperil ours.
Not that we could not afford them without french assistance, just that it would be an excellent excuse for Nu-Labour to cancel them.
Posted by Matthias Gris on April 23, 2007 8:44 AM
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The world needs a vigorous France playing it's part in world affairs. Sarkozy is the country's best hope.
Posted by stuart turner on April 23, 2007 8:25 AM
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The world needs a vigorous France playing it's part in world affairs. Sarkozy is the country's best hope.
Posted by stuart turner on April 23, 2007 8:25 AM
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Sir/Madam:
Good news that Nicolas Sarkozy has led the first round of polls. This will surely pave the way for his ultimate win.
It is most important that France cleans up it immigration laws throwing out all the illegal ones. It should also deport those indulging in troubles, riots and bringing their past baggage with them. These can be done only by a conservative candidate such as Nicolas Sarkozy.
Regards,
Posted by Krishna R. Kumar on April 23, 2007 7:24 AM
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France needs Sarkosy, they have become entrenched, and need someone who will get the bit between the teeth and make those all important decisions.
Posted by Frenchcountrygirl on April 23, 2007 6:53 AM
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Sarkosy will win the 2nd round of the election but it will be difficult to reform France which has been in the throes of marxism thinking for too long.
Sarkosy has no real competition.The only asset of Royal is to be a woman,which is not necessory a plus in a country where female politicians have never succeeded.We have not got a French Maggie THATCHER.
Sarkosy is the fighter needed to fight the leftist spirit in France and in Europe.
Posted by mduforest on April 23, 2007 5:13 AM
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Posted by: slugbug, overwhelmed by comments | April 24, 2007 at 08:40 AM
The real problem with France right now is that Royal is too weak a candidate.
Over in Asia, South Korea and Taiwan have the same problem - the leftists are weaklings, and the people will vote the Moonie fascists back into power this year.
Such is the state of affairs, when American tax dollars are being used to influence politics overseas, instead of improving life within the US borders.
Posted by: Ally McRepuke | April 24, 2007 at 10:58 AM